The big picture

The team at the Housing Justice Lab has been tracking how new and planned rapid transit investments are reshaping neighbourhoods in five Canadian station areas. We are asking a simple but enduring question: when cities build transit, what are the effects on the ground – and for whom? Our research takes a housing justice lens, focusing on whether transit-oriented development areas promote affordability through increased building unit construction.

Methodology and approach

To understand neighbourhood change, we focused on three big pieces:

• Building intensification: where and how fast new housing is being built
• Investment and landlord behaviour: measured through permit values and, in Cooksville, formal eviction filings [1]
• Demographic change: shifts among non-white, visible minority groups

Methodologically, each case is built around a quasi-experimental, difference-in-differences design, comparing how station areas change relative to matched controls before and after the opening (or anticipated opening) of transit.

We used a common framework across all five sites so we could meaningfully compare what is happening in very different local contexts. In each, we defined the TOD area as the compact, walkable, mixed-use development within 800 metres of the rapid-transit station. We delineated 800-metre station catchments around the transit station in five neighbourhoods: Arbutus (Vancouver), Cooksville (Mississauga), McKernan–Belgravia (Edmonton), Northfield (Waterloo), and Panama (Brossard) and used those as our station-area “treatment” groups.

We then identified matched control areas outside any rapid-transit influence with similar pre-treatment characteristics (income, renter share, dwelling condition, shelter burden, visible minority share). We created annualized indicators of development for the period before, during, and (if applicable) after construction, including:

• Units created per land area and per 1,000 dwellings (where permit data allow)
• Dollar value of new dwelling projects per square kilometre
• Eviction filings per renter household in Cooksville (where eviction data allow)

We also tracked ethnoracial change by census population group to see how the demographic composition of these station areas shifted over time. While this does not directly track who moved in or out, it raises subsequent questions about the drivers (e.g., migration, births, or deaths).

Click here for a more detailed discussion of the methodology.

What we found

In general, our research found a clear, cross-case lesson: transit alone doesn’t guarantee either intensification or better access to opportunities. Local land-use rules, market conditions, and tenant protections shape who benefits from these massive public investments.

TOD impacts are real but uneven

The five cases show that there is great diversity of TOD effects. McKernan–Belgravia had a delayed but powerful wave of infill, with a sharp spike in units per 1,000 dwellings only in the late 2010s, a decade after the station opened. Arbutus and Cooksville are already seeing strong pre-opening investment, as developers respond to clear planning signals (Broadway Plan, Hazel McCallion Line) and visible construction progress. Northfield and Panama sit at the other end of the spectrum: development is emerging, but at a much slower pace, and in Panama’s case barely at all.

Demographic change is not one story

Across the cases, visible minority populations generally increased in station areas – but the mix is not the same everywhere. Northfield experienced one of the largest proportional jumps in visible minority residents, especially Black, Arab, Latin American, and West Asian populations, reflecting both student housing and broader migration patterns. McKernan–Belgravia and Cooksville saw growth among several racialized groups (Black, Filipino, Arab in Edmonton; Japanese and other minoritized groups in Cooksville), while some long-standing groups declined. Arbutus is diversifying in a context of entrenched land values: Latin American, Southeast Asian, and West Asian populations are growing even as overall population change remains modest. Panama largely bucks the trend: the station catchment area shows neither strong intensification nor major demographic shifts, even as surrounding South Shore areas diversify.

Equity signals are mixed

Cooksville is our clearest window into formal displacement risk. Eviction filings per renter household declined over the decade during construction in Cooksville and other areas along the Hazel McCallion Line (formerly known as the Hurontario Light Rail Transit (LRT)), while control areas experienced higher and more volatile rates. That pattern sits uneasily next to visible reinvestment and suggests more complex sorting dynamics of who is being housed and under what conditions.

In McKernan-Belgravia and Northfield, visible minority populations are growing in station areas, but in the context of tightening rental markets and rising costs. In Panama, low development can look like “protection” from speculation, but it also means a missed opportunity to add non-market and deeply affordable housing near high-order transit.

Specific findings from case snapshots

A deeper examination of each case allowed us to draw conclusions from the dynamics of the case study areas compared with their municipal contexts.

Early intensification and diversification occur where housing is affordable (for now)

Cooksville showed a dramatic spike in the value of new dwelling projects around 2023 as the Hazel McCallion line approached opening, with much lower investment in non-station control areas. At the same time, formal eviction filings per renter household trended downward. This suggests a modest improvement in housing stability within Cooksville, potentially linked to ongoing investment and gradual neighbourhood renewal tied to the LRT.

The area’s population grew from 2016 to 2021, and the area became more racially diverse.

Cooksville is becoming a regional growth node, and the City has positioned Cooksville as a key redevelopment area in Mississauga’s downtown intensification strategy – but whether that growth locks in affordability is still very much an open question.

Emerging nodes benefit from tailored planning

Northfield is slowly shifting from employment- and institutional-heavy lands to a more mixed urban node. Compared to station areas in central Kitchener, Northfield has a moderate concentration of newly issued housing units relative to its total land area, indicating active, but still emerging, TOD. Intensification to date has been modest in absolute terms but high relative to the existing dwelling base, suggesting that the area could experience significant redevelopment momentum in the near future.

The station area has seen a sizeable jump in visible minority residents since 2021, among the largest proportional increases in visible minority residents across the corridor.

Northfield is an early-stage TOD zone where policy can still meaningfully shape outcomes. Its moderate growth demonstrates the corridor’s outward diffusion of TOD impacts. It also underscores the need for tailored planning strategies to activate underutilized lands and expand housing supply in station areas that were historically employment-focused.

Policy certainty can lead to speculation

Near Arbutus, building permit values per square kilometre climbed sharply after the adoption of the Broadway Plan in 2022, signaling strong market anticipation. Investment is concentrated along West Broadway and Arbutus Street, where zoning flexibility and parcel assembly opportunities are greatest.

The station area is quietly diversifying while the overall population remains stable. This is TOD in a high-cost market: intense capital flows, constrained affordability, and a small but important demographic reshuffling.

In more affordable cities, TOD can be slower

McKernan–Belgravia has been on Edmonton’s LRT network since 2009. For several years, development was steady but moderate, until 2019, which saw a wave of higher-density infill and redevelopment occurring well after the station’s opening. In Edmonton, long-established station areas like McKernan–Belgravia are seeing the strongest proportional redevelopment, but there is also evidence of emerging transit-oriented development activity near the soon-to-open Valley Line station areas.

The demographic picture shows growth among several visible minority groups but uneven trajectories by subgroup. This is what a long-term TOD build-out looks like in a more affordable city.

Transit does not guarantee transformation (yet)

In Panama, the story is what has not happened. Neighbourhoods not near transit stations across the South Shore saw strong growth in occupied dwellings and rising diversity, but Panama’s 800-metre catchment barely moved on either dimension.

Despite a major transit investment and its strategic position close to downtown Montreal, the station area has not yet absorbed significant redevelopment pressure or demographic change, especially when compared to the broader South Shore, where non-station areas display clear signs of intensification and diversification. It is a reminder that TOD potential can be stalled by local zoning, ownership patterns, and market timing.

Key conclusions and policy recommendations

Transit development cycles are typically longer than housing development periods. As such, our recommendations emphasize encouraging new diverse housing types while preserving and protecting naturally occurring affordable housing to ensure areas remain affordable for longstanding residents and lower income households.

Where municipalities have paired transit investment with clear land-use policy and upzoning, we see sharper, earlier spikes in residential investment. Where frameworks are weaker or more suburban in form, intensification is limited or highly uneven. This highlights the importance of aligning transit investment with supportive planning tools from the offset. Moreover, it offers opportunities to approach planning decisions regionally to connect development patterns across neighboring cities and communities.

In places where development has lagged, targeted planning interventions can help unlock potential. Encouraging land use diversification, streamlining approvals for mixed-use development, and requiring or incentivizing affordable and purpose-built rental housing can help distribute growth more evenly and prevent an overconcentration of development in one area.

As station areas intensify, shifts in who can afford to live near transit can happen rapidly. Ensuring that transit investment does not lead to displacement or exclusion requires acting early, before land values rise. To support diverse and inclusive neighbourhood change and long-term equity, policy-makers should prioritize deeply affordable and purpose-built rental housing, community amenities, and transit-oriented public spaces, ensuring populations most reliant on transit maintain access to essential services, jobs, and daily needs. With tools like inclusionary zoning, land banking, and the strategic use of public land at their disposal, municipalities should prioritize equity-deserving groups in their planning decisions.