New tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada and other countries have sparked interest—and concern—about their effects on jobs and businesses across Canada. As details about tariffs on Canadian goods continue to emerge, policymakers, business leaders, and the public are asking where the impacts will be felt—now and over the longer term. What places are most vulnerable?
Measuring trade impacts is complex because there are many factors at play. The immediate impacts of tariffs are on the businesses (and their employees) that produce goods subject to tariffs. However, there may also be downstream, indirect impacts. And, the situation is not static as businesses, consumers and governments respond and adjust to a changing economy. Businesses may diversify their markets and seek new (or substitute) suppliers. Citizens may alter their purchasing habits by buying local or Canadian products. Governments may try to spur local purchasing and help support businesses. And the federal government may adjust monetary policy, fiscal policy, and trade policy (e.g. counter tariffs, new trade agreements) to ensure the resilience of the Canadian economy.
Since May 2025, Tara Vinodrai and Karen Chapple have led a team of researchers at the School of Cities to develop interactive mapping and visualization tools that measure and explore the potential impacts of tariffs on jobs and businesses across Canadian cities and communities at the neighbourhood and city level. Our tools illustrate the highly localized and uneven potential impacts of U.S. tariffs reflecting Canada’s underlying urban, regional and sectoral specializations.
- Examine maps of the potential direct exposure to U.S. tariffs related to specific goods (e.g. automotive, steel, copper, lumber, energy & natural resources) across Canada at the neighbourhood level, measured by 1) businesses 2) employment (based on place of work) and 3) employment (based on place of residence).
- Review these same impacts in aggregate across Canadian cities.
- Read our backgrounder and blog on Canada-U.S. trade and mapping direct exposure to tariffs.
- Learn more about our research methodology.
Research team
Tara Vinodrai, PhD is Professor in the Institute for Management and Innovation at the University of Toronto, where she directs the Master of Urban Innovation program.
Karen Chapple, PhD is the Director of the School of Cities and Professor in the Department of Geography & Planning at the University of Toronto.
Jeff Allen, PhD is a Senior Research Associate and the Lead of Data Visualization at the School of Cities at the University of Toronto.
Muhammad Khalis Bin Samion completed his honours undergraduate degree at the University of Toronto in human geography and urban studies. He is currently earning a master’s degree in urban spatial science at University College London.
Eli Easton is a senior undergraduate student at the University of Toronto where he is studying economics and public policy.
Richard DiFrancesco, PhD is Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Planning at the University of Toronto and has expertise in input-output data and models.
